Going Nuclear in the Middle East - In search of an European Middle East Policy
Jean FRANÇOIS-PONCET, French Senator, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Co-author of the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Armed Forces Committee's report on the situation in the Middle East - This morning, we will be starting with an assessment of the situation in Iraq, where along with Madame Cerisier-ben Guiga, we were able to visit Baghdad, and Irbil in the north. It is not exactly the capital of the state but of the Kurdish autonomous region. We met some officials and observers of civil society.
Now, it is our good fortune to have with us for the roundtable Mr Barzani, who will obviously be talking to us about the Kurds. He is the head of the intelligence service in the Kurdish autonomous region. We also have the French Ambassador to Iraq, and we are delighted to see him. Also joining us is Mr Yasseen who is a senior official in his country, and Ambassador of Iraq. He has been monitoring developments in his country, and he will doubtless explain how he speaks such outstanding French.
Ambassador, maybe we could start with you, tell us how Iraq is doing.
Boris BOILLON, French Ambassador to Iraq - I have 20 minutes to speak and so I obviously cannot give you a very detailed analysis of Iraq. I will be looking at one issue, how specifically France is contributing to the renaissance of Iraq.
On a more humorous note, we know that Iraqis sometimes describe themselves as the Seven Sleepers (Ahl al-Kahf). They have been cut off from the world during thirty years because of the embargo and successive wars and now they have to reconnect to the outside world and make up for lost time. This is exactly what France is trying to do in Iraq, contribute to the rebuilding and rapid normalization of this country after three crises: post-dictatorship, post-embargo and post-interconfessional war. Obviously, for the Iraqis, a martyred people, it is very important
But also for the international communities, it is vital that Iraq be restored to a pole of stability. It is necessary Iraq becomes again a strong and stable country in a strategic part of the world where balances are fragile. Let us not forget that with a population of 33 million Iraq is, after Iran and Turkey, the largest country in the region. It is a rich country that has the third largest oil reserves and maybe even more, and the market for reconstruction is huge and estimated at $600 billion, so we can see the stakes are high for the international community.
French support to Iraqi reconstruction and renaissance is very wide ranging but it focuses on three main areas, which will structure my discussion. Firstly, I will speak about political support for the new Iraq, the new Iraqi institutions, and support to international and security normalisation. Secondly, I will be talking about economic and financial support, and thirdly, the French support for reinforcing rule of law in Iraq through a strong cultural, scientific and technical cooperation.
Let us start with political support for Iraq. France is very clearly working alongside Iraq and its new institutions. France defends Iraq's unity, sovereignty, and the federal nature of this republic, and without formal interference, it supports national reconciliation and the democratic evolution of the country.
This political support is clearly manifested in excellent in-depth dialogue. Think back to 2007/2008, and visits by Bernard Kouchner which marked the French comeback. In 2009, we had returned to an unprecedented pace of interaction between officials in this region. There was a surprise visit by the President recently, and at the very highest level, there have been visits in both countries each month: Mrs Idrac in February, the Vice President Abd al-Mahdi in April, and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in May. Prime Minister François Fillon came in July with Minister Lagarde, and all of this culminated in the state visit in November. I could also list others, such as the Head of the Parliament. Many others have been from Paris to Baghdad, and vice versa, and that is a flow that is continuing to expand because 2010 will be a year of the deepening of these relations and implementation of the commitments on the ground.
These are very substantial commitments that were formalised during the State visit, very briefly I can sum that up. Firstly, the two countries decided to enter into «unlimited reciprocal cooperation», this is what Presidents Sarkozy and Talabani said, in the framework of an exemplary, strategic partnership. Secondly, we set a very ambitious roadmap that it is my responsibility to implement as fast and efficiently as possible. Agreements were signed, and they underpin our scientific, cultural, military and economic cooperation. The bilateral agenda is really very extensive involving lots of visits, and a few weeks from now the French Minister of Industry will be going to Iraq. Above all, we have set up really original tools tailored to the specifics of the Iraqi situation. I will come back to these later.
In the area of political support, there is a strong commitment on the ground. I am in daily contact with Iraqi forces that refuse the violence. There has been a military and economic mission reopened, a new French Embassy is under construction, the French residency, after almost eight years of being closed, is now open. There is a new consulate general in Irbil, a new one is being prepared in Basra, and two French cultural centres are running flat out.
Also, in the political sphere, France is very clearly supporting improvement of the security situation in Iraq, with supporting cooperation between services. Also we will have an internal security officer there soon.
Maybe I can briefly tell you something that I think will be interesting, because I know there are a lot of clichés about this. It is about security in Iraq and the way that I see it, and the way it affects me in Baghdad moving around. It is true, there are spectacular attacks targeting the Iraqi state every month and a half. The last one took place on January 25 th . There was one on August 19 th , October 25 th and December 8 th going backwards. They are very spectacular, but the overall trend is a major improvement. Statistics are morbid, it is true, but very illustrative. In 2009, on average there were eight fatalities a day. In the previous five years, 2004 to 2008, the average was 60 per day. You can see that the difference is remarkable. I do not want to talk about statistics when it comes to such tragedies but this is the reality.
One can unfortunately expect further attacks in the next few weeks especially before the March 7 elections, but the trend is extremely encouraging. The people behind these attacks are in three groups, al-Qaeda, extremist Shi'ite Militias, and the Ba'athist Nationalist Militias, who sometimes enter into temporary alliances. There are three causes of the improving security. The first is that, paradoxically, the American withdrawal means that there is no legitimacy for the armed groups, and this is contributing to security. Secondly, the Iraqi security forces are efficient, extensive, out on the field, they know their job. They work well and everyday they book successes. The third cause is that the Iraqi population is now tired of 30 years of violence and civil war, and wants to move on.
Geographically speaking, violence is in two areas, the mixed Kurd-Arab areas in the north, Kirkuk and Mosul. The second main violent area is Baghdad, and its suburbs. You can see that geographically there is shrinkage, and also a change in nature. At the moment the armed groups rather than trying to reignite the confessional war as in the past, are targeting state symbols. I also note that Mafia-type violence is competing more and more with terrorist violence through kidnappings, for example.
That was just a digression, but I think it is important for people from the field to come talk about their reality. I am not saying that I know the only reality but it was my reality. I can say that French people who want to return to Iraq, and I would encourage them to do so with the necessary precautions, that is to check out the French Embassy website. There are two main security risks for the French people generally. Firstly, you can just get unlucky if you are in the wrong place and the wrong time when a bomb goes off, and it happens every day in Baghdad. The second is kidnapping by Mafia-type bands. To deal with that, if you come to Iraq, you have to work with security companies. There are French ones, who will provide you with a secure vehicle and some people to accompany you. Those are the ways of dealing with the main dangers. I am not saying they do not exist but there are ways of working with them.
I will end the first part concerning political support from France by saying that, obviously, France offers Iraq international support. Iraq can count on French support in all multilateral bodies, the Security Council and also in the Paris Club. Iraq wanted to get its rights on the international scene back and move on from Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, and France will do what it can. We in France are not scared of a strong Iraq, because it is a democratic country now, and democracy means respecting neighbours and civil society. Military adventures are now over in Iraq, as we see it. This is why France offers unreserved support to modernisation and training of the Iraqi Army. We have undertaken major cooperation with them so that the Army can fulfil its functions defending its country and its people.
The second area that I will look at is France contributing to economic and financial recovery in Iraq. Here again we are very clear and very determined. We set an example, as of 2004, writing off most of the Paris Club debt, and the various debt slices of almost EUR 5 billion have now almost been completed. *
Obviously, French companies are interested in the Iraqi market. In 2008, French businesses had 0.5% of that market, which is virtually nothing, EUR 173 million of French exports, whereas we imported EUR 1.5 billion worth of hydrocarbons. You can see the huge imbalance, and the very low level that we had reached.
I do not have the figures for 2009, but I can tell you that things are really going to be taking off and this is a good thing. We achieved excellent results this year, and we will be doing even better in 2010. I know some contracts have been signed, so you can see that this is a living business relationship. Technip, Total, Air France will be coming to see me next week. A contract signed this year is General Electric France, it is a contract worth EUR 1 billion for electric turbines, built in Belfort. Another one was a EUR 150 million contract with Degrémont for a drinking water plant that I will visit next week with the Baghdad's mayor. Saint-Gobain also signed a contract and ADPI an exclusive one for airport construction.
There are French businesses investing, and I pay tribute to them because they are courageous and visionary. Lafarge, for example, in Kurdistan, invested EUR 650 million in a cement plant, which is the largest and most modern in the Middle East. They are going to do the same investment in the South, at Karbala. I can tell you that Lafarge is an exemplary company because they are taking risks. At the moment Lafarge accounts for 60% of Iraqi cement construction, that is obviously a good choice if you see how extensive the construction is in the country. CMA-CGM also invested a lot and it controls currently 30% of the maritime traffic in the harbour of Umm Qasr.
Lastly, I can say there are ongoing negotiations with quite a number of companies, Technip, Alstom, Peugeot, Thalès, Veolia, Renault, EADS, France Telecom and Air France. I hope these work out. You can see that things are moving forward.
French companies have three advantages. The first is past reputation as they operated in Iraq in the 1970s and 1980s. The second strength is that the Iraqis are clear that they want diversification, they do not only want to work with Anglo-Saxon companies, so the French are welcome. Thirdly, perhaps unexpectedly, the Americans themselves are very much in favour of this. They know they are pulling out of Iraq, they want to do this on schedule. By mid-August there will be a major pull out, and then next year all troops will have gone. To meet these deadlines they need to be able to handover under good conditions. The French companies involved in reconstruction are all very welcome.
The most important part of this second section is to show how France and its Ambassador actually support day-in day-out the return of French businesses, so we are working very hard there. We are going to open the French Business Centre which will be inaugurated by Minister Estrosy at the end of February. It is very much an innovation. It is a public-private partnership (PPP), that will mean that any French company that wants to go back to Iraq will be met at the airport, will be secured, will be hosted under safe conditions, will get a customised programme and through the Centre will be able to meet all the major business stakeholders in Iraq. It is innovative, it is original and it cost the French taxpayer nothing, because it is all self-funded. It is something we have worked very hard on. We are very pleased that we will be opening this Business Centre at the end of February.
The second innovative tool that we have set up is the French Agricultural Centre, to be opened in March, we hope with the presence of a French Minister. The reason for this, as you probably remember, is that Iraq is `Mesopotamia', the country between the two rivers, and there is a major agricultural tradition that we should remember. It is the orchard and wheat granary of the region and at the moment it has to import 80% of its food. France is a great farming country, so why not work together, this is what we are trying to do with the Agricultural Centre. There will be various areas of research, such as seeds, trade, research, training, water. All this is being done in Iraqi Kurdistan, in Erbil. A building is being restored and will be opened in March in partnership with French agri-food companies, and I think this is a wonderful innovative project, and meets real Iraqi needs.
The third tool that we are setting up for French businesses is the set of financial instruments, for example a seed fund of EUR 10 million for those businesses that want to train Iraqi engineers in France. Coface is once again operational there in the short term and hopefully in the medium term. AFD will be in Baghdad for the first time with its financial engineering tools and credit systems, and we just signed an agreement to protect our investments. There are also institutional instruments, fairs in Baghdad and Irbil, and also farming fairs where we will be present. In November, France was the only Western country represented with about 100 businesses in Baghdad, and it was a huge success.
My conclusion in relation to economic support by France to the restoration of Iraq, is to say that because the Iraqi market is complicated, it is profitable. You cannot have your cake and eat it too. Obviously, there are risks in returning to Iraq, but they are limited, and they are certainly measurable and controllable, and this is very important. The problem, when you talk to Iraqis, is not really security, it is governance.
This is a good transition to the third section, how France is helping in governance. I do not like the word too much, but it is about how we strengthen and support the rule of law in Iraq. This is the third area where we are working, there are four priorities: governance, civil society, training the elite, and cultural cooperation.
I will start with governance. Iraq is moving on from its professional conflict now, so we need to close those religious, ethnic and tribal gaps, so as to restore confidence of citizens in an impartial state which has the legitimate use of power. It is also a State that can generate solidarity, and citizens must have confidence in their state.
And France is helping in every way possible. Firstly we support the reform of the judiciary, and we have very strong cooperation there. We are working on cooperation with the Iraqi Supreme Court, the equivalent of the French Constitutional Court, Court of Cassation and Higher Council of Magistrature. We are going to receive the President of the Supreme Court in February in Paris. In December, there was a delegation from the Iraqi Council of State, and we are working very hard to establish strong partnerships with the main institutions to reform the judiciary system.
Secondly, and I am delighted, Minister, to be able to say here that we are working with Iraqi Parliament, as you know full well. You very kindly met the President of the Iraqi Republic who was delighted to be here too. You also met the Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament in September, Mr. Al-Samarraï, and you have just met the Secretary General of the Iraqi Parliament to look at possibilities for specific cooperation between parliaments. There was, in fact, a memorandum of understanding signed with the lower chamber of the French Parliament. This means that you in the Senate can also make a major contribution. According to the Iraqi constitution, there should be a Senate in Iraqi, which does not yet exist, so that is an area of cooperation for you, because there was strong ethnic and religious cleavages in the country, so doubtless a Senate will help to enhance representatives of society.
Now, the third action in governance is in the area of criminal law and making all the stakeholders there professional. You know that there is a European programme, EU-Just lex that is training program for magistrates and police officers. France is the major contributor to that. We have been able in that framework to provide training for over 400 people in France. Bilaterally we have decided that there will be an internal security attaché returning to Iraq, and we will be working with magistrates.
The fourth area of action in governance is making sure the security force is professional. That involves a whole programme of training with the Iraqi Police Force, and we will also help them to set up a gendarme force.
Last but not least, we will observe the next elections. In addition to the observers that will be sent from Europe, there will also be French Parliamentarians there, including some Senators at least, MPs, and some French MEPs.
Very briefly, I just want to say that we work very closely with the civil society and there is a programme for elite training, however, I cannot go into details. We have 200 trainees that came to France. It is a real effort to help the Iraqi University to recover. There is also a research development, and here I want to talk about the last innovative scheme we have set up. There is a French archaeological and social science research centre to be opened at Irbil in September with support of other French institutions, and this is very innovative.
In conclusion, reconstruction and renaissance of Iraq, as Kant would say, is a moral imperative whether it be political, geopolitical, economic or cultural. I hope I have convinced you that the decisions taken by President Sarkozy, and implemented by Minister Kouchner are very clear and determined. We are working alongside this new Iraq in this transition phase. Obviously, it is surrounded by some uncertainty, but also huge opportunities. It is now that France has to take up position and work alongside Iraq, not tomorrow. Thank you.
Jean FRANÇOIS-PONCET, French Senator, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Co-author of the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Armed Forces Committee's report on the situation in the Middle East - Thank you, Ambassador, that was a very interesting presentation. However, you did not describe changes in the domestic situation in Iraq but we will come back to that point. We all feel that up until mid-2007 Iraq seemed lost, there was bloody insecurity, which was basically everywhere. Things have improved, it is one of the countries where the US has acted fairly and jointly with some success, we have to say. They were helped to some extent by some excesses of al-Qaeda, which made them hated and that helped. Iraq is a country with religious problems and these are difficult ones to tackle. You have not really given us all the information we had hoped to get, Ambassador, through your very interesting contribution.
I would like to give the floor to Mr Yasseen, who is going to tell us first of all how it is that he speaks such perfect French. That is not an easy thing to do for someone who is an Ambassador in his country and senior official at the very highest level. Yesterday, over dinner, I was asking him if he did not intend to get involved in politics. He said, `absolutely not'. I think that is probably a wise choice, Mr Yasseen. Please, sir, if possible give us an overview of the situation, where we come from, where we are headed, and how this transition - which has looked much more promising that we might have originally thought - is taking place.
Fareed YASSEEN, Ambassador, Government of Iraq - Thank you, Minister. I had thought I would speak English if people told me my French was good, but the only reason I speak French like this is because I, as you sir, am the son of a diplomat. I would like to thank you for inviting me to speak to you about the Iraq of today.
I think the title of our session is very appropriate and highly relevant. I think it is a good description of what is going on in Iraq right now. In Iraq, after a period, or a long absence, observed by my neighbour, we are seeing renewal, a renaissance. However, there is some irony in the title of this session. When you talk about renaissance, implicitly there is an idea of destruction. Iraq was destroyed through dictatorship based on the totalitarian Ba'ath ideology, which in Arabic means «renaissance.»
Now, Iraq is being born again in a different form through a complicated political process which is not over with yet. It is a process that began through US intervention which pushed out the past regime. However, there are two features in this process, first of all, as in the first day, there was Iraqi will, that sometimes had to cope with some US reluctance to bring the process forward. Next, we can say the process contains within it the sources of its legitimacy, first of all internationally by involving, to the extent possible, the UN and the UN Security Council. There is also popular support through elections; the next ones will take place on March 7. However, the process has encountered resistance and I will talk about that later.
Why am I talking about a rebirth or renaissance in a different form? I am talking about it because we want to draw the lessons from our past and mistakes made in the past. Since the creation of Iraq, there has been a real contradiction. You see great centralisation of the super-structures of the Iraqi government and yet a very diverse population with many different communities, notably the Kurds. We have seen repression and militarism, which led to various coups, the first taking place back in the 1930s. This also explains the many wars conducted by the governments against several Iraqi communities in the south and the north; some of these wars lasted decades.
This is why the leaders of the main political parties in Iraq have negotiated with the agreement of the US occupation authorities on an action programme, on November 15, 2003, to engage Iraq in a process establishing a constitutional government in 2006. This process, approved by the UN Security Council in Resolution 1546, led to several stages. The first stage, the restitution of authority to an interim government approved by the United Nations, was done in June 2004. The second stage, elections for a constitutional assembly, forming a transitional government entrusted with drafting a constitution was done in January 2005. The third stage, approval of the text of the constitution was undertaken in October 2005. After which election of a constitutional government took place in December 2005.
However, for us, that is not completed yet. First of all this has been scheduled, and we heard that there will be constitutional revision and the establishment of second house or Senate. Next, we have problems which we have inherited that need to be solved. What will we do with Kirkuk? There are internal borders that need to be redrawn, etc. These are matters that are going to require a great deal of attention, a great deal of goodwill and careful thought.
First of all, I would like to observe that the US occupation authorities wanted a completely different process. They wanted a process that would spread out over two years, leading to elections, not in 2005 but in the end of 2007. The reason why the Iraqi political forces exerted great pressure to obtain elections earlier was firstly to ensure legitimacy for the government up until the elections. There were people who said they were speaking on behalf of the Iraqi people, but we needed for that to be elections, a government that was legitimate and representative that could speak on their behalf and not be contested. Secondly, there had to be peoples' representatives, elected by the people to draft the constitution. The main idea the Americans had in mind at the time was the constitution would be written by experts. This was a point that Ayatollah Sistani, the religious authority most influential in Iraq, emphasised. I think he was right in lending great emphasis to that point. I mention this point because we often meet people who say the Iraqi constitution was written by American experts, I read this recently in Le Monde , and sometimes that newspaper does make mistakes.
What are the consequences of the political process? They are major consequences of historical order in Iraq. First of all, our Government is more representative of Iraqi diversity. This mainly means that the Shi'ite majority community in Iraq is no longer without a voice, sometimes this leads to reactions. People talked about Shi'ite dominance and this is a consequence of democracy.
A second point is the recognition of the Kurdish communities' accomplishments, which manages matters that are not constitutionally under the responsibility of the Baghdad government.
The third point is the decentralisation of power as shown through the Federal budget just passed, giving substantial resources to Governors. This is an important point for French businesses that wish to invest in Iraq. You will have to speak to people not only in Baghdad but in various Governors' offices.
The fourth point is readjustment of US presence and influence in Iraq leading to normalization. In the space of a few years the Americans have turned from occupiers to partners. This is largely through their own will. Our relations are now governed by strategic agreements. One such agreement is a framework agreement, which includes many different economic, social, political and cultural relations. Also, we have an agreement which manages the presence of US forces in Iraq, who will be leaving Iraq once and for all at the end of 2011.
This did not all happen easily. We had to cope with insurrection, unprecedented terrorist activity, and with what I would not call civil war, but a war against civilians. Boris Boillon talked about an average of 60 deaths a day. In 2006/2007 but there were about 100 people killed a day in Baghdad alone. It is a huge figure. Regions and whole cities were forbidden areas with no state presence.
All of this has changed, as the Minister said earlier, and a new strategy has been enacted. We talked about the American surge, which was not just a military strategy but a political strategy also. Thanks to which it was possible to really turn things around completely. That strategy which was successful has meant that the insurgents and the terrorists are no longer a strategic threat for Iraq. They are still a threat as has been shown in recent examples alluded to by Boris Boillon - I almost was involved in one of those recent examples - but they are not going to be changing the forward-moving process.
Now there is worldwide acceptance of Iraq. France was one of the first countries to accept Iraq, thanks to the visits alluded to by Boris Boillon, but France is not the only country. There have also been very important regional developments. Egypt specifically, among others, made a strategic choice to come to Iraq's side, appointing an Ambassador. Recently they received our Prime Minister and we signed over 40 economic agreements with Egypt. Our neighbours from Turkey and Iran are competing with each other in Iraq in every field, the economy, politics and elsewhere. Very recently, international oil companies have committed to invest substantial amounts in Iraq which will mean that within about 10 years time, Iraq will hold the same position it held previously in OPEC, it might be the second oil producer in OPEC.
In a nutshell, I would say we are witnessing a true restoration. In the 1950s, Iraq was moving forward, this was all halted through a coup in 1958, then in the 1960s we continued moving forward to some extent, but that was really inertia more than anything. Then the Ba'aths arrived, Saddam's regime, which threw us to the sidelines. Now I believe we are very much in an upswing. I think this is all going to be consolidated through the upcoming elections that I have been mentioning. These elections are very important. Everything that has happened so far has been temporary or interim. Even the constitutional government we had, which lasted four years, seemed in many respects like a transitional government.
The strength of these elections is that we have an electoral legislation that gives special importance to the Iraqi voters compared to the parties. The previous elections were governed by a different electoral law, which favoured parties. The elections to take place in March of 2010 will make it possible for Iraqi voters to vote for individuals. All Iraqi politicians are taking this very seriously now. Some of them are actually afraid at this point. I am here instead of the Vice President for that very reason. The Vice President is currently in election campaigns, I think he is campaigning in his home constituency right now. There is something very interesting in terms of these elections. It is not so much the elections themselves but rather the political process that will take place after the elections. In Iraq, initial elections gave rise to identity-based coalitions. I think in the March elections we are going to see some competition between the communities, and this may lead to the formation of coalitions that go beyond identity-based coalitions. We will see the emergence of politics like you are accustomed to here in France. Only time will tell.
Jean FRANÇOIS-PONCET, French Senator, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Co-author of the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Armed Forces Committee's report on the situation in the Middle East - I would now like to give the floor to Mr Masroor Barzani. You know, Barzani is a true dynasty in Kurdistan. When we were in Irbil with Ms Cerisier-ben Guiga, capital of the Kurdish entity, we met with the President who was a Barzani, and I think the representative in Paris is also Barzani. I think if you are not a Barzani in Kurdistan, you have a hard time of it.
Mr Barzani, we have expectations of you. You are in charge of security and intelligence in your country, and we are hoping you will tell us where things stand for the Kurds. Can we talk about a Kurdish state? I do not know. What is the appropriate term for the situation because of course Kurdistan is part of Iraq but it is very autonomous. It has its Peshmerga, the defence force, a true army: they are highly disciplined and highly motivated. Kurds are part of Iraq, and at the same time they have made so much progress toward autonomy, have attracted foreign investments and have built a major modern airport in Kurdistan. When we were in Irbil we did not have to transit through Baghdad, we went directly to Irbil.
Tell us about Kurd autonomy. What are the prospects? Also, talk to us about the points that are still a source of disagreement with Baghdad, the central government, and particularly Kirkuk, the capital in the north. Where are things headed in Kirkuk? What solution do you envisage?
Masroor BARZANI, Head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party's (KDP) security and intelligence agencies - Thank you very much. I would be more than happy to give you a Kurdish perspective, a general overview of the situation in Iraq, and I would like to focus on what we believe may be the main problem, what the solution is and the best way forward. In that I hope that you find the answers to some of the questions that you raised.
Ladies and gentlemen, it is truly an honour to address you today. I have prepared a paper, so I am just going to read it out to you. In the birthplace of many of the democratic ideals towards which we now strive, as I stand before you, I am reminded of the great traditions of the French people, the commitment to liberty, property, security, and resistance to oppression. Those principles have been laid out over two hundred years ago in the Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen. These values based on fraternity and equality, remain the foundation for all those seeking a more just world, a world where all men are presented fairly by their political institutions and where no man suffers brutal injustice by those entrusted to protect, preserve and promote the common good.
Inherent in the struggle to realise these goals, and the Declaration itself, are the warnings of the Baron de Montesquieu, that constant experience shows us that every man invested with power is apt to abuse it and to carry his authority as far as it will go. He wisely recognised, and history has since proven, that no government can aspire to the most basic of democratic ideals and no people can realise the most fundamental of human rights without adhering to separation of power, without the knowledge that the government should be set up so that no man need be afraid of another.
Few places so clearly symbolise the inherent danger of ignoring this edict than Iraq. Since Iraq's independence, Kurds, Arabs and other communities, have suffered from the unwillingness of some of Iraq's leaders to accept these basic principles. Religious and ethnic minorities have faced genocide at the hands of leaders intent on creating an idealised, strong central State out of the post-war fabrication that is Iraq. In their never-ending quest for uniformity, they have not found unity but division and ruin. The results have been devastating for all concerned, hundreds of thousands massacred, the vast promise of our people on oil wealth squandered. As one of the main components of Iraq, the Kurds have been the subject of a genocide war, they have been the victim of chemical attacks and a series of infamous and foul operations during which more than 182 000 people, mainly women and children perished and 90% of our villages were destroyed and levelled to the ground. This is well-known history, one that has resulted in a deep sense of mistrust and fear between individuals, communities, the people and the Government, where the disadvantaged, weak, or vulnerable, expect the strong to pillage and where a culture of revenge and retaliation have ruled.
It has been our hope that this tragic cycle would be broken by the adoption of federal democratic principles and the 2005 Iraqi Constitution ratified by over 80% of the voting Iraqi electorate. It has been our hope that a new era would begin, where our differences would no longer be misconstrued as our greatest weakness but instead become our greatest strength, each component competing peacefully and contributing to the betterment of the whole. A future where power would be dispersed and limited and as Montesquieu advocated, no man need fear another. However, the last few years have shown that many challenges remain. The security vacuum that has existed in many parts of the country has proven an invitation to international and local terrorists, who have played on our history of mistrust and won over segments of the population. The repugnant attacks have rejuvenated the sense of insecurity between Iraq's communities, especially Shi'ite and Sunni, which undermine even a basic sense of fraternity between us.
Weak leaders have turned aboard allowing foreign entities with dubious intentions to play a role in directing our development, and ineptitude has bred invasive corruption that has permeated our bureaucracies, attracting profit seekers rather than civil servants. Under these circumstances, loyalty to sect and ethnicity, not surprisingly, continues to come before country. This is the reality of Iraq and wishful thinking, and lofty solutions cannot change this legacy. We must accept and understand it if we ever want to move beyond it and change the course of history. None of Iraq's people can thrive while some languish in fear. No progress or development can be realised without confidence in the fundamental rules of the system.
The Kurdistan region, however, despite all of these challenges, has managed to largely contribute to the unity of the country. It is today the safest and the most peaceful and secure part of Iraq which in turn has helped the economy of the region to flourish. This was mainly possible because of the dominant culture of tolerance and religious co-existence. The whole Kurdish experience, and the national reconciliation practiced in Kurdistan, could be a clear indication of how Iraq could move forward. At its heart, this is our struggle to establish the sort of division of power and rule of law that characterised modern democracies. These values are embodied in our constitution but it is only in their full and just implementation that we can find peace and progress. Without embracing these values we will inevitably slide again towards despotism, regardless of who leads. For the constitution is greater than any one conflict, issue or law. It extends beyond oil and gas, parliamentary seat allocation or budgets. It is about what type of state, what type of people and what type of community Iraq will become. It is the source of our ability to feel confident and safe to know that the new Iraq will be a break from the repressive past. It binds us together as different communities secure in our differences, but united in common goals of progress and justice. I stand before you committed to the federal and democratic principles laid out in the Iraqi constitution not because I am a Kurd but because like all Iraqis I am a victim of a despotic past.
In its recognition of the importance of strong local and regional government, the constitution reassures the long suffering Iraqi people that the new Iraq will avoid the over centralisation of power that has brought such devastation. For the betterment of all Iraqis it lessens the ferocity of the competition over any particular office by delegating authority and responsibility more widely. This delegation is essential for addressing corruption and creating the virtuous cycle of peaceful competition that reduces incompetence over time.
My message to you today is not pessimistic then, in many ways we are at an advantage, we have the answers to our biggest problems, we have voted on them, and agreed to their promise. We know what we must do. All that remains is the fortitude, wisdom, and courage to implement the democratic and federal system proven so effective to governing diverse societies and protecting individual rights. This is the only way forward, the only way Iraq and its people have for creating the sort of unity and progress found elsewhere.
We as Kurds, and more broadly as Iraqis, and you as Frenchmen, Europeans, and more broadly the international community, cannot waiver in our commitment to these shared values. To overcome its most important hurdle of disunity, Iraq must be able to protect its people and give them confidence in its benevolence. It must reassure us that the powerful will no longer be oppressors, that regardless of religion, all Iraqis from Basra to Zakho, from Erbil to Baghdad, will have a say in their fate, will have the rights granted to them by our constitution. This is the basis for our fraternity and the only hope for Iraq's future. Thank you.
Jean FRANÇOIS-PONCET, French Senator, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Co-author of the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Armed Forces Committee's report on the situation in the Middle East - Before I open the floor for questions I will kick-off myself. I find that our speakers, in particular Mr Barzani and the French Ambassador, have avoided the delicate issues, the tricky questions by deciding to talk about what France is doing in Iraq, which is very interesting of course. The Ambassador avoided giving an assessment of Iraq, he talked about the security problem much more. Mr Barzani has expounded a certain number of sentiments that we all subscribed to, he said nothing about Kirkuk.
I am going to corner them, and I am going to ask our Ambassador to explain to us and remind us why Iraq in 2007 seemed a lost cause but evolved. Everyone has criticized the United States, saying it was a terrible idea to invade Iraq. Since then things have turned around, why and how, Ambassador? Can you give us a quick run down on that please?
Boris BOILLON, French Ambassador to Iraq - It is true there has been a turnaround in Iraq - In a couple of years we have gone from total chaos to today's situation of much greater optimism. I think there was a partial answer to your question in Fareed Yasseen's statement. He talked about the American surge, which was the start of the change, and then there were other milestones such as the regional elections in January 2009. However, for the first time we could clearly see emerging an Iraqi national sentiment. Some political parties whose programme was about national unity won the election. Since then I think one can clearly see, emerging in all parts of Iraq, its desire to move on from the divide.
Even physically, one can see an explanation. The Algerian humorist Fellag said that when you dig deep enough, there comes a time when you stop and you can only go back up. Iraq went very far. Fareed Yasseen said in 2007 and 2008 we were talking about 150 to 200 fatalities a day in Baghdad and this cannot go on forever. There comes a time where you reach the low point and people start to change things. 2008 was really the change. Things have improved since then.
That is why these elections are a turning point, a watershed, which will lead us to further progress. There are five main coalitions that are standing for election, that of the current Prime Minister, the coalition that is lead by the Shi'ite Party, there is the Kurdish coalition, and there are two others that are so called secular coalitions, one headed by Allawi, former Prime Minister, and the other by Bolani, current Defence Minister. What is interesting is that all these coalitions have a programme that openly aims to move beyond religious and tribal differences. Now some people would say that this is just words, maybe but at least the words are being spoken. This exit from the crisis and conflict in Iraqi means that words are important.
You asked me about the root causes of this change in Iraq. Without wanting to be a barroom psychologist, it is the fact that people are talking now, and when people say that there is now a democratic basis in Iraq, it is not just words, it is true. I would say Iraq is the country in Arab Muslim world where there is the greatest and clearest freedom of the press. Each newspaper is attached to a certain party or trend, but there is freedom of the press. You can read in Iraqi newspapers now a very lively debate, exchange of ideas or criticism. I think it is this process too of speaking out, of saying certain things, that will help heal the wounds. This is a slow process that has started in Iraq now, and I personally think it is very dynamic.
Obviously, it is a question of whether you see the glass half-full or half-empty. Things are not perfect; there is a lot that is problematic. It has been very difficult to pass the electoral law. However, what is positive and encouraging in this crucible of new Iraqi democratic developments is that consensus is now possible in Iraqi institutions, for example, the current triple Presidency is not written into the constitution. It arose out of the conditions at the time of the civil war which was so atrocious that they felt it necessary to have three Presidents, each one representing a given confession. Now we are moving on from that, because after the upcoming elections there will be only one President.
The institutions that were set up ad hoc have created consensus, and the Presidential trio is absolutely outstanding. When there is a problem or a debate, the President and two Vice Presidents, get together, talk, and generate consensus, and things move forward, sometimes slowly. You were talking about Kirkuk just now, but I could talk about the hydrocarbon law. In fact there are four pieces of legislation in there. I could also talk about budget share-outs between Kurdistan and the rest of the country. Obviously, there are problems there, but there are issues in every country.
My personal view about this is not going to get us anywhere, although I have to be very careful with what I say, of course, because I do want to stay Ambassador. Kirkuk is a problem for the long term. It is a human problem of huge scale. There was terrible suffering, ten of thousands of families that were deported, I talk about bloodshed, death, awful memories, and this cannot be wiped away by an act of Parliament, this will take time. I think what is required is trust in the Iraqis because they are in the front line. They have already solved a lot of the problems, and the March elections are a miracle. Indeed, I do not know many countries in the world where in a situation like Iraq two years ago, they would have been able to find the necessary resources to organise the regional elections that happened last year, and it will be the same this year in March. This is really exceptional and one cannot but acknowledge that.
Let us not put the cart before the horse. A lot of issues have already been solved by the Iraqis themselves, sometimes with the support of the United States whose positive role I underlined. The Americans did do a lot of damage but they also contributed, assisted and they put a lot of resources and effort into this. As for the big central issues, like Kirkuk, because here we are talking about identity issues, that will take time.
I would just like to stress that there is a living democracy now in Iraq that counts. It is not perfect. In the current elections, there have been problems like candidates who have been sidelined for rather unclear reasons. But overall the job is being done and things go forward.
Because you were talking about Kurdistan just now, I would say that the Iraqi constitution does plan for the creation of regions, because it is a federal republic. At the moment, there is only one region which is called KRG, the Kurdish Regional Government with provinces of Sulaymaniya, Erbil, and Dahuk, all within 15% of the surface area of the country. There is discussion between the regional government and the central government at the moment. Masroor Barzani quite rightly talked about this long tradition of distrust and that is not going to evaporate in a couple of months. However, work is underway, a commission has been set up by the central government and the regional government, in particular, to look at the so-called «disputed territories». That is a good thing in itself. The UN is working presently in the field and they will help people to go forward. Obviously, there are discussions. There is a question of what percentage of the national budget should be allocated to Kurdistan.
The last point is that for me Kurdistan in Iraq is a fantastic gateway to the country, because there is total security, there are local specificities, local regulations that are very conducive to foreigners and foreign investment. It is true that we in France would like to use the north of Iraq, the KRG, which remains Iraqi, as a way to organize seminars and meetings. For you, the French people who want to enter the country, this could be the way in because from Erbil or Sulaymaniya you can then move to the rest of the country.
There is just one point that I have to be clear on as Ambassador. Iraq is one country, and I cannot imagine that that would change in the next 100 years. I think the Kurds and the Arabs has understood the advantage of their common interest to be united. There is clearly existing Iraqi identity which appears in the local dialect and references. There is an existing past, loaded with hatred, but there is a country that is called Iraq and that will last, I am absolutely convinced of that. Quite apart from conflicts that might well exist naturally as we do have as well. France is a centralized country but think back to the beginning of the 20 th century when the Bretons had French clubbed into them at school, and so this was what France was like not so long ago.
Jean FRANÇOIS-PONCET, French Senator, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Co-author of the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Armed Forces Committee's report on the situation in the Middle East - Thank you very much for that interesting explanation. We will now open up the discussion to the floor.
Patrycja SASNAL, Polish Institute of International Affairs, Analyst, Middle East- I have enjoyed all three talks of the honourable panellists, I find it astonishing that all of you have painted the very same positive, optimistic picture of Iraq. I will give you just one number that I find alarming. The general perception is that Afghanistan and Pakistan are now the most dangerous parts of the world, and that this is the bloodiest conflict that we are facing. However, the recent reports give us a number of 2,500 civilian deaths in Afghanistan and 3,000 in Pakistan, whereas the official Iraq body count toll is 4,500 civilian deaths in 2009. I am thinking now if Iraq is the safest place in the region, and Afghanistan is the most unsafe place.
You are forgetting about the Ba'athist problem, because the Ba'athists do still have a lot of support within the Sunni community. The Shi'ites and the Kurds have their voice, but the Sunnis feel deprived of their voice. It is great that there is the tripartite Government, and there is a Sunni representative, but that does not mean that there will be no violence on the part of the former Ba'athists whose offices are still in Jordan or Syria. How do you see the integration of these people in Iraq? Do you think it is possible? Do we try to have connections, with these people? Do you see a solution to this problem?
Masroor BARZANI, Head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party's (KDP) Security and Intelligence Agencies - When I was talking about the security and I think a peaceful place, I tried to mention that the Kurdistan region is relatively secure and safe in comparison to the rest of the country. Nobody could deny that there is still violence and there are still bombings and there are still problems in the rest of the country, but it is our hope that the model followed in the Kurdistan region could be practiced elsewhere in the country. We could overcome the problems over the years and the time to come. We believe that the main problem is political before it is a security issue. If people do not have a reason to join insurgency or to allow particular terrorist organisations to come into the country, then they probably do not have to do that and this requires a compromise from all sides.
You mentioned the Sunnis who may feel that they are excluded from the political process. As a main component of the country, Iraq will never be complete without all the people that make up Iraq, so Sunnis are a main component of that country. They have to be a part of the political process in order to succeed in any process and in the upcoming elections too. The problem with the Sunnis in the last election is that they themselves decided to boycott the election. We hope that this will not be repeated in this upcoming election. It will be up to the Sunnis to participate in the political process.
You mentioned the Ba'athists; obviously we have to make a distinction between those who have committed crimes during the Saddam era and those who were forced to become Ba'athists to keep their jobs and to avoid being expelled. If we make that distinction, I think there is a legal way to bring those who have committed crimes to justice. While those who were just simply Ba'athists because they had to be have to be given an opportunity to participate in the political process and to be reintegrated in the community.
Fareed YASSEEN, Ambassador, Government of Iraq - You talked about the Sunnis, there are Sunnis in the government, and there will be a lot of Sunni candidates standing in the elections in the next few weeks. The Sunnis will have a role in running the country, a voice in government. Does it exclude others? No. That is not possible any more. Their inclusion in the political process is a decision by all the Iraqi stakeholders in politics.
I will give you an example. Masroor Barzani has just said that the Arab Sunnis boycotted the elections to the constitutional assembly in January 2005. It is true, there were very few candidates representing them because of the electoral system that was inherited from the UN, but that is another question. What do we do? We made sure we included people who had not been elected and who represented that community in order to draft the constitution. I will give you two examples: Adnan Pachachi, who is an eminent diplomat, former Foreign Minister, and Saleh el-Motlaq, who is being talked a lot about today. They both were involved in writing the constitution so there is an effort towards inclusion. The criterion from the next government is that it is an inclusive one. I think, and hope, it will meet the criterion.
I would just like to add something, because you asked Boris Boillon for what reason Iraq has moved on from the hell it was in 2007 to something acceptable in 2008. There are several reasons. Firstly, the US surge and developments in the Iraqi Sunni community that turned against Al Qaeda, that is a very important factor, made this evolution possible.. Then there was a political decision by the Prime Minister to act against the Shi'ite militia in Basra and then Baghdad. That really made a difference.
Jean FRANÇOIS-PONCET, French Senator, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Co-author of the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Armed Forces Committee's report on the situation in the Middle East - This is especially important because the Prime Minister himself is a Shi'ite. By acting against the Shi'ite insurgency in the south, he showed that he was above religious divisions, which conferred national authority upon him, and in fact his campaign platform was about national themes. However, I don't know whether the upcoming elections will enable him to continue in that direction, I think I asked this question yesterday, and you said it is impossible to know.
Fareed YASSEEN, Ambassador, Government of Iraq - I have a comment on the elections next March. Nobody can reliably predict who will be the Iraqi Prime Minister. I think that is meaningful, because it is the elections that will give a verdict.
Jean FRANÇOIS-PONCET, French Senator, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Co-author of the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Armed Forces Committee's report on the situation in the Middle East - That is a very good sign, as long as the best man wins. I like elections, they are a good idea, but sometimes they return a rather surprising result, which is what happened with Hamas. I remind you that Hamas in the last elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, came out well ahead. Nonetheless, the Western world, led by the US, probably at the instigation of Israel, all stated that the voters had got it wrong, and just ignored Hamas and thus the elections. Sometimes the ballot box gives you a result other than the one you wanted. Despite the scepticism, I think we have time for two more question.
From the floor - In the 1980s I worked in Iraq a lot at the time of Saddam Hussein. Women played a very important role. I was in telecommunications, there were women who were heads of department, directors and engineers. Will this new society be a secular one, and will women play that sort of role? Moreover, what will happen to the Christians?
Philippe de SUREMAIN, former Ambassador to Iran - Just now you talked about the re-emergence of an Iraqi state. How do you see its relations with two major neighbours, Iran and Turkey, because Egypt is not the only one involved?
Fareed YASSEEN, Ambassador, Government of Iraq - 25% of the Iraqi Parliament are women.
Jean FRANÇOIS-PONCET, French Senator, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Co-author of the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Armed Forces Committee's report on the situation in the Middle East - We here could not claim the same.
Fareed YASSEEN, Ambassador, Government of Iraq - They really are playing a role. I was very proud recently because there was a new round of Ambassadors appointed including three women. This is an excellent idea and I attach great importance to this. My mother was a university professor and now a retiree. My aunts were doctors. And it is still like that. If you go to Iraqi universities, you will see that most of the students are women and those who come out top of their year are usually women. Sooner or later, we will be governed by them.
As for the Christians, that is a major issue. The presence of Christians is vital, essential, to Iraq and I speak as someone who studied in a school founded by American Jesuits, where I had a lot of Christian friends. Iraq would not be the same without them. They have to stay, they have to be protected. Unfortunately, it is a vulnerable population, they have been horribly targeted. But I can assure you that the State is doing everything it can to protect them and to make sure they play their full role.
Iran and Turkey are our two most important neighbours, and not just because of water. Iraq is one of the few countries that, because of natural interest, is obliged to have excellent relations with Iran and with the United States. I think we are managing to do it. Sometimes we managed to bring them together, get them sitting around the same table. Our problem is to make sure that we can speak to them on an equal footing. To do so we have to build our country and that is what we are doing. Iran has been at our side in rebuilding Iraq. I remember the first visit of the new government to the United Nations in 2003: we were virtually ignored by the representatives of the Arab countries, but we were invited to dinner by the Iranian permanent representative. A lot of our leaders spend years of exile in Iran, they have personnel friendships with Iranian and Syrian leaders, so we have a good relationship with Iran.
Turkey is our main trading partner and that is not likely to change. For the Turks, it is fair to say that they are now reaping the benefit of their courage because over the last six years they have been present throughout the country. They were the first movers and they have had the first movers' advantage with respect to the Iraqi economy. You have to see what they are building and investing into Kurdistan. We are in the process of building a centre that will host the government, in the Green Zone, and it is a Turkish company that is involved in that.