B. THINKING IN TERMS OF A "SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS": A NEW REQUIREMENT
1. The FCAS's architecture
In 2040, threats will have evolved a great deal. Long-range air defences and access denial systems, currently expanding with the export of Russian systems (S400 and later), will become more widespread. Aircraft stealth will be generalised, and the enemy will systematically use cyber defence resources, drones in swarms or otherwise, and high-velocity missiles. The integration of land/sea/air/space defences and cyber capabilities will itself be much more developed. Thus, the stakes for future combat aviation will be to be capable of establishing and maintaining air superiority to be able to act in the third dimension, on land and at sea.
Building the FCAS thus requires a paradigm shift . System-based threats must be responded to by an FCAS itself built as a system to conduct "collaborative combat" . Thus, the FCAS must include several components themselves laid out in several circles.
• The first circle is the NGWS (next generation weapon system) which encompasses:
- a combat aircraft (expected to be manned at this stage) , the NGF, capable of completing interception and air-to-air defence missions, as well as dissuasion missions for France. Thus, it seems necessary to maintain a piloted aircraft, in particular in cases where the decision to intervene includes a significant political aspect. Also, non-piloted systems are more exposed to jamming or the destruction of their long-range data link (satellite). However, this aspect is no doubt subject to change (see Part III);
- remote carriers that can weigh anywhere from a kilogram to a tonne; unmanned machines with capabilities of saturation (sending swarms to saturate enemy defences), decoying, intelligence (before and during the mission), or to strike against highly defended targets. Some of them can be retrieved by returning directly or retrieval on the field; others will be consumables similar to munitions. They will be equipped with a certain amount of autonomous capabilities (artificial intelligence) to face the threats that they might encounter ahead of combat aircraft.
Remote carriers: versatile tools of combat in the future
There are many possible applications for remote carriers, which can weigh from a few kilograms to several tonnes: penetrating enemy defences by saturating them through sheer numbers, decoying enemy aircraft, carrying out electronic warfare missions (jamming), designating targets for other aircraft, carrying out reconnaissance missions, launching missiles instead of combat aircraft, etc.
In particular, MBDA is looking at smaller remote carriers, which would be "consumables", i.e. they would not be retrievable. They may be equipped with an explosive charge so that they can be destroyed in case of loss, so that the enemy does not benefit from their technology. These small remote carriers will also need to be inexpensive as they will have to be used in large numbers.
Airbus is working on larger remote carriers, potentially weighing several tonnes, which would be jettisoned from large aircraft (A400M). They could be retrieved on the ground or in the air while the larger ones could be equipped with landing gear. Accompanying manned aircraft, they would be "loyal wingmen" capable of carrying out combat operations, defending manned aircraft and gathering intelligence.
- all within an "air combat cloud" that connects all the platforms to allow for collaborative combat.
• For France, the second circle will include future versions of Rafale, satellites, refuelling aircraft, radar planes, navy ships, resources of allied forces, etc.
All the elements that make up the two circles must be able to communicate with each other constantly so as to constitute a team directed by the pilots of combat aircraft. Thus, interoperability, connection and dialogue between platforms within a "combat cloud" will be essential. Military capabilities will lie less in the unitary performance of its individual components (platforms, sensors, carriers) than in the way they are combined . In particular, this system could decide which platform will attack (drone, missile) and which platform will stay behind according to the threat or how the situation evolves.
In any event, attack formations should comprise fewer combat aircraft than at present , numbers being provided by the various remote carriers whose attrition is more acceptable since they will be unmanned and potentially cheaper, taken individually, than a combat aircraft.
Illustration: MBDA
2. Necessary innovations
To meet the needs in 2040 and remain competitive through 2080, the FCAS must be highly innovative . The goal is not just to maintain effective combat superiority in the face of the means adversaries may deploy but to be attractive for exports . Only a system including one or more totally exclusive and innovative bricks will be competitive against competitors who are very experienced in arms exports.
The new "system of systems" organisation provides essential innovations in the following sectors:
- aircraft technology : better propulsion thanks to a hotter engine (see below) and variable-cycle technology, better stealth, and better manoeuvrability. The combat aircraft, which will be optionally "dronified", remains at the heart of the FCAS. The programme's directors clearly intend to regain the lead in 2040 over current and future adversaries and competitors with a combat aircraft equipped with the best capabilities possible at that time.
- sensor technology with the development of antennae that combine radar, listening, communication and electronic war.
- remote carrier technology , with breakthroughs needed especially in terms of cost reduction for consumable drones, miniaturisation and swarm flight.
Three domains of technological innovation call for special development: connectivity and combat cloud, artificial intelligence, and the new engine.
3. The challenges of connectivity and the combat cloud
The aspects related to connectivity will be essential. This is likely to include a high-speed intra-patrol link, a high-speed satellite link and, possibly, optical links (see box below). Cyber security will also be a key issue for the system as a whole. The FCAS must also be able to function without connectivity in case of a total loss of connection. On all these aspects, the Air Force is currently developing the Connect@aéro 12 ( * ) project taking into account existing systems, be it the Syracuse 4 satellite, the Omega navigation system, or the Rafale F4 for which the connectivity brick will be central.
Correspondingly, data management will be an essential aspect of the FCAS. The extreme amount of data produced by the many aircraft that will make up the FCAS must be sorted, processed and analysed to provide the best information possible to the operators.
Currently, the Rafale is already networked, but the pilot mainly uses their own sensors and, to a lesser extent, information provided by the network. Many data from the aircraft's sensors are not shared. The new generation of air combat will go hand in hand with better sensor capabilities, better use of the electromagnetic spectrum, increased storage capacity, artificial intelligence to extract and process data, heterogeneous data fusion tools and architectures, integrating raw data from on-board or remote sensors which are already used in isolation by 5 th generation aircraft (F22 and F35), and, finally, better diversity and speed of application development. Thus, on the FCAS the network must manage the data transfers independently of the pilot, who will only see the merged data. They will supervise the overall process. Ultimately, it will be a paradigm shift: a switch from a data exchange dictated by the network's format to data being at the heart of the system . 13 ( * )
The end goal of the tactical cloud is to speed up decision making and execution to obtain tactical superiority.
One of the crucial aspects of the cloud and the data links will also be their resilience to cyber-electronic threats : the NGWS will probably function in a highly constrained and scrambled electromagnetic environment, which will require the ability to operate without connections.
The key issue of satellite communications
The FCAS will rely a great deal of data being exchanged via a network of all actors. Control of these exchanges is fundamental and represents a real issue of sovereignty without jeopardising the search for very high interoperability(...).
Today, combat aviation is at the beginning of the system of systems concept. Connectivity between the various vectors is already a reality, but it is still somewhat partial and limited: the Rafale's F4 standard that foreshadows the ultra-connected combat aircraft is the first to implement satellite communications as standard.
The space aspect will play a predominant role in the FCAS's operational capabilities by providing the essential bricks to building the "system of systems', considering the reactivity, length and speed of travel that characterise airborne vectors. Conversely, the FCAS could also contribute to the space domain.
Exoatmospheric space has become an essential link to each step in the cycle of operations, from knowledge about our centres of interest to evaluating our actions on our enemies through the planning and execution of our operations. Space provides many services such as satellite communications, positioning, navigation, time synchronisation, early warnings, meteorology, and space surveillance and listening. These capabilities provide a major distinguishing advantage by reducing uncertainty in combat situations. They allow us to access areas that cannot be reached by land, sea, or air. Monitoring areas of interest from space, by observing and listening, contributes to planning and conducting operations as well as national autonomy in assessing situations, by allowing us to gain information about enemy provisions and intentions or to carry out general early surveillance. It aids in tracking, targeting and engaging the adversary and is a way to assess battle damage. ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) support provides a better understanding of the situation, in particular for alerting units and appreciating how friendly forces disrupt the adversary. In the field of permanent strategic surveillance, it contributes to finding and anticipating potential risks and threats.
Nevertheless, space's support requires changes for future operations. The precision required for operations requires data that is reliable, calibrated, current, and distributed in near-real time. Satellite images allow an objective to be identified, but its constraints make it incompatible with on-board real-time operations: the revisit frequency will be an essential parameter to approaching permanence.
Protection against new threats such as high-velocity missiles will rely on early warnings. It will be necessary to detect and characterise launches, provide early warning, assess impacts and identify potential countermeasures for FCAS objects requiring them.
In addition to the extension of the new vectors and their very high connectivity, FCAS will be characterised by the integration of remotely controlled and/or automated vectors. Satellite communications allow for remote piloting and communications independent of geographical constraints. For vectors using Satcom, operational mobility becomes vital, as does overcoming coverage constraints around the globe and accessing frequencies (Ka, Ku, X, or using laser communications). The availability of Satcom resources becomes critical. It must be the subject of precise planning and will require great robustness (particularly cyber) and resilience. Operating with a wide variety of objects requires these objects to be highly coordinated. Position, navigation, and time (PNT) data are already essential; they will be more so in the future. The aim will be to guarantee forces the use of reliable and accurate location information to better train, plan and conduct their operations (for better accuracy and to limit the risk of collateral damage). In addition to coordinating operations, controlling time allows the information networks and systems to function in terms of synchronisation and security.
Finally, Navigation Warfare (NavWar) will continue to spread, coordinating defensive and offensive actions to guarantee the use of PNT data for friendly forces and deny it to their adversaries. FCAS objects must not only be protected against this but may potentially play an offensive role in this field. Finally, FCAS systems could provide tactical support capability to space operations. The most futuristic approaches imagine the NGF fighter plane contributing to the FCAS to put small short-life satellites into orbit by carrying a rocket/missile under its fuselage, thus providing great responsiveness.
Source: Jean-Pascal Breton| No. 118 - Le Spatial, 1 June 2019
(Jean-Pascal Breton is the operational manager of the FCAS programme.)
The FCAS will also be an open system capable of interconnecting and interoperating all the weapons systems together. This approach is new: even the United States has tended to implement closed systems until now. The F35, despite its modernity and its performance, is a rather closed system, which explains the difficulties it has in working outside its own network.
This does raise the question of the authority that is able to impose the standards of this interoperability , however. One possibility would have been to integrate into the American standards that support the F35. However, that would also have been a significant blow to Europe's strategic autonomy. So instead, France decided to develop its own cloud with Germany and Spain, which implies then working on NATO interoperability. In concrete terms, FCAS countries must be able to develop an interoperability standard that will substitute NATO's Link 16 based on American technology and which cannot be used outside the United States without their agreement (see the EcoWar programme already covered, page).
4. Artificial intelligence
Artificial Intelligence (AI) will be essential to the FCAS's performance . It will act as a virtual assistant to the pilot, capable of helping them to take decisions by sorting the most relevant information from the sensors to avoid saturation and reduce stress in combat. The AI will also help to automatically generate mission plans, adjust sensors to the terrain and predict maintenance. It will also play a role in cooperation between drones. AI will play an essential role both within the NGF and for remote carriers.
Developments related to AI touch on a wide range of fields, in particular issues of military organisation and ethics (the use of lethal force/the laws of war). In any case, for now, FCAS programme leaders consider artificial intelligence as a way to increase human capabilities as they will remain at the heart of the system, instead of as a way to replace them . 14 ( * ) In this spirit, the Armed Forces Ministry launched the "Man Machine Teaming" (MMT) project on 16 March 2018 with the precise goal of preparing the artificial intelligence technologies needed for future combat aviation. A contract was awarded to Dassault Aviation and Thales. As part of this programme, a quarter of studies will be awarded to laboratories, innovative small businesses and start-ups specialised in artificial intelligence, robotics, and new human-machine interfaces. The goal is to develop technologies that will benefit both a modernised Rafale and the future FCAS. Two calls for projects have already been launched to select companies.
The Man Machine Teaming project
This project seeks to equip the various machine systems with greater autonomy and artificial intelligence " to serve an expanded and redesigned human-machine relationship ". In this perspective, these intelligent systems would no longer be limited to just executing actions requested by an operator. It would allow for collaboration that would make operators' actions and decisions more efficient and effective while saving their mental and physical resources.
For this, these systems will be equipped with an increased knowledge of situations using various means of perception and analysis (operators' conditions, interactions, predicting actors' intentions, tactical combat situations, etc.). This capability will allow systems to learn from the situations it encounters, adapt to the consequences and share relevant information to support operators' decision making and planning. To ensure the high level of performance needed for missions to succeed, this Cognitive Aerial System will also include new ways of interacting that are more natural and suitable to the situations that operators encounter.
In this context, the role of the MMT project is to begin identifying technologies that might be integrated into this Cognitive Aerial System. Should these technologies not be mature enough, MMT's mission is to help develop them. One of the things that makes this project original is its goal of developing technologies in collaboration with an ecosystem of French start-ups, small businesses and research institutions that are already involved in exploring, using, or producing these emerging technologies.
To structure this approach, the MMT project is broken down into six areas of technological development: (I) Virtual Assistant & Smart Cockpit, (II) Interactions, (III) Mission Management, (IV) Intelligent Sensors, (V) Sensor Services and (VI) Implementation & Support.
Source: the Man Machine Teaming project
5. The challenge of designing a new engine
Developing a new engine for the propulsion of the NGF is one of the main challenges of the FCAS programme.
a) An issue of strategic autonomy
Once again, this is foremost an issue of strategic autonomy for Europe: maintaining its capability of producing a combat aircraft engine like the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia. China is also making big investments in this field.
In particular, it is a central issue for SAFRAN, who helps to produce civilian engines but only for the "cold parts" (low-pressure parts considered less "cutting edge" than the hot parts), in partnership with General Electric (GE) on the CFM56, the engine for Airbus's A320, as part of the CFM International 50/50 joint venture. This way, the FCAS should help SAFRAN to maintain its capabilities in the "hot parts", including on civilian engines, even though the company has not produced engine hot parts since the Rafale's M88.
b) A technical challenge
The technical challenge for a combat aircraft consists in obtaining the most powerful and most compact engine possible.
The Rafale M88's maximum thrust is 7.5 tonnes (with versions of more than 8 tonnes possible). This thrust is less than its direct competitor, the Eurofighter's J200 (9 tonnes), a heavier aircraft than the Rafale, and much less than the Pratt & Whitney F135, the F35's engine (up to 20 tonnes of thrust for a heavier single-engine aircraft than the Rafale). The objective is to reach at least 12 tonnes of thrust for the engine that will be equipped on the FCAS's NGF, since this aircraft will necessarily be bigger and heavier than the Rafale . More power implies a higher operating temperature. Currently, the F35's engine has a significant advantage over the Rafale M88 engine in the matter.
The DGA has awarded Safran a contract for an upstream study programme (PEA), Turenne 2, in the amount of €115 million to work on increasing the power of the M88, which could eventually be used on the Rafale and make progress on the FCAS. 15 ( * )
The second challenge for the future NGF engine is to develop technological innovations that can maintain high thrust at supersonic speeds and reduce fuel consumption when cruising at low altitude. Variable engine cycle technology , by varying the proportion between hot and cold air flow, allows such a result to be achieved. In fact, this is a very active field of research for American engine manufacturers (experimental tests on the F35 engine).
These are considerable technical challenges . We should note that Pratt & Whitney and General Electric, two American engine manufacturers, have each received more than $1 billion in 10 years to tackle them. For the moment, of the €150 million planned on 20 February 2020 for the FCAS's phase 1A, €91 million are allocated for the aircraft and only €18 million for the engine .
During their hearing, Safran's representatives clearly indicated that they were aware of the challenge that needed to be addressed to create the NGF's engine.
6. A necessarily incremental approach
To be able to adopt the technologies as they emerge by integrating new capabilities into the programme as it develops, it must take an incremental approach . This gradual change in operational capabilities is also needed as part of the upcoming changes to the Rafale, which will accompany the NGF for several decades.
Thus, according to MBDA's representatives, a cooperative combat system could be developed before 2030. This stage could be reached as part of a Rafale F4 and the Connect@aero project. Then, in the early 2030s, features of collaboration between the aircraft and between aircraft and carriers (arms and the first remote carriers) could be implemented. The Rafale F5 and the Typhoon LTE could be an opportunity to implement this stage of capability. Finally, after 2035, we could see a gradual deployment of the components of the Next Generation Weapon System.
* 12 For the French Air Force, Connect@aéro is a step-by-step approach to digitisation beginning now, ensuring the gradual and then enhanced connectivity of air resources, command centres and air bases. Connect@aéro will guarantee this digital transformation to deploy airborne and ground communication architectures and structure data and operational services gradually and coherently.
* 13 See "The 'tactical cloud', a key element of the future combat air system", FRS, 19 June 2019.
* 14 We are far from the "technological singularity" predicted by certain science fiction authors (Vernor Vinge) and futurologists (Ray Kurzweil) who hypothesised that artificial intelligence would suddenly cross a threshold that would place it out of human control.
* 15 The goal would be to go from an engine that can handle a temperature of around 2000 degrees K instead of the 1850 degrees K for the current high-pressure turbine.